COVID-19 Testing Still Outpacing Supply, With Little Hope of Closing the Gap Soon

The U.S. has been behind the diagnostic testing eight ball since the COVID-19 crisis first began. Thus, unlike Australia, South Korea and other countries that pursued a strategy of widespread testing at the onset which ultimately enabled them to contain the spread of the virus, the U.S. was slow in recognizing the threat. As a result, it was extremely difficult for people showing symptoms to even get tested, and complete testing data was not available. As it was in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, diagnostic testing will be crucial to reopening the U.S. economy going forward. The good news is that the country has made up for lost time since the early stages, with nearly 100 different COVID-19 tests reaching the market, a figure that literally grows every day. The bad news is that the U.S. is still playing from behind as far as COVID-19 testing is concerned. And it appears that the testing pipeline is still facing serious obstacles and testing is unlikely to continue lagging through at least the end of the year. The Need for COVID Testing Data One of the problems with evaluating the current state of COVID-19 testing in the U.S. is the lack of data. According to The COVID Tracking Project, a volunteer organization dedicated to collecting and publishing COVID-19 data, there is no complete account of COVID-19 testing data anywhere in the U.S. In other words, the U.S. government isn’t tracking and reporting this data on a national level. As a result, the COVID Tracking Project had to collect this data from the public health authority in each state, territory and the District of Columbia. Each of these authorities reports its data in its own way, including via online dashboards, data tables, PDFs, press conferences, tweets and Facebook posts. And while many states and territories have slowly moved toward more standard methods of reporting, the actual taxonomies and categories of information remain in flux. The COVID Tracking Project Findings Based on the COVID-19 testing data it was able to gather from 56 different U.S. jurisdictions, the COVID Tracking Project reports that, as of May 12, 2020:

• 9,637,930 COVID-19 tests had been performed in the U.S.;
• 1,360,705 of those tests were positive;
• 8,277,225 of the tests were negative.

The Project also reports that daily test volumes are growing dramatically. Thus, the number of new COVID-19 tests performed on the day of May 12 was 289,472, as compared to the 140,562 new tests performed on April 12, and 5,137 new tests performed on March 12. What the Test Numbers Mean The numbers are sobering and scary. According to the COVID Tracking Project, as of May 12, 1,360,930 people in the U.S. have tested positive for COVID-19; among those to test positive, 76,617 have died. And, of course, those numbers don’t account for the people who contracted and maybe died from the virus who weren’t tested. In addition to testing for clinical treatment, the reopening of the U.S. economy will precipitate a vast new demand for COVID-19 screening tests from employers. Factoring in the need for workplace screening, experts estimate that some 100 million to 200 million tests will be needed for the rest of the year. However, tests remain in short supply, as do testing personnel, reagents, swabs and other materials. And while the diagnostic testing manufacture pipeline is operating at a frantic pace, doubt remains about whether industry will be able to satisfy these soaring COVID-19 testing demands in the near future. The Bottom Line Based on the limited data available, it appears that COVID-19 testing in the U.S. continues to lag behind and that the gap between demand and supply isn’t likely to close any time soon. Mass testing and screening is likely to remain an elusive objective as the tests that are available remain reserved for the sick and symptomatic.